Categories
Investing

Why is The Market At All Time Highs?

Many people right now are wondering why the stock market is at all time highs while the economy is in recession. I too wondered if this were an anomaly created by excessive Fed printing. So I looked to see if something similar has happened before.

As it turns out, during the 1981-1982 recession, the stock market (blue line in chart below) hit an all-time high after recovering from significant losses.

During the 1981-1982 recession, the return to stock market all time highs occurred close to the end of the recession as unemployment (maroon line) peaked.

Of course, the end of the 1981-1982 recession was only known later in hindsight, so people likely asked the same questions they are today. What they could not see was that the market approached all-time highs because the recession was close to ending. While the transition to growth was slow and painful – as I expect it to be today – with unemployment taking years to return to normal, the markets rallied once economic growth resumed.

The return to growth (second chart below) in 1982 is easily identified by unemployment (maroon line) beginning to fall and Industrial Production (blue line) starting to rise (second chart below). This occurs right near the end of the recession, as indicated by the grey shading.

Industrial Production is a great indication of economic recovery. As you can see (if you have good eyesight) in the chart below is that at the end of every recession (grey shading) Industrial Production immediately grew. The second chart below zooms into the current recession. It is clear that Industrial Production has started to grow once again while unemployment has started to trend down. This indicates the current recession likely ended in April or May and growth has resumed, explaining the stock market’s return to all time highs. (Note the entire period is shaded until the recession’s end is officially retroactively declared months later.) Again, this growth doesn’t feel like growth because we’re rebuilding from an uncomfortable bottom, but the market only cares that things are growing.

The 2020 recession was sharp, deep and short. Markets reacted accordingly and crashed faster and deeper than ever before. The recovery will be long and painful, but we are back on the growth path. Markets sniffed this out months ago explaining the rally. Markets hit all-time highs in 1982 – when unemployment was near its peak. The same thing is happening today.

Categories
Real Estate

Charts: Real Estate in the Crapper

Businesses are closed or operating at reduced capacity. Millions of people are unemployed. Mortgages are deferred. The need for office space is being questioned.

To put it lightly, both retail and commercial real estate is experiencing one of the most transformative moments in history. While malls and brick-and-mortar retail has been under pressure for years, Covid-19 compressed a decade’s worth of change into a couple months.

The charts below highlight the current state the real estate market.

With the huge surge in unemployment and minuscule savings, Americans are suddenly unable to pay their bills. 32% of Americans missed (either fully or partially) their July mortgage payment.

Delinquency rates vary by property type (overall delinquencies approaching decade highs) but are rising rapidly.

New York is the most stressed area at the moment, likely due to its concentration of people/businesses, real estate valuations and the severity of regional lock-downs.

Toronto-area housing has remained strong through the downturn, with prices actually increasing.

Although Toronto has experienced a resilient housing market, it could face increasing pressure over the next several months as rental supply rises (driving down the price of rent). The decline in condos leased combined with the surge in listings has pushed the condo rental inventory from 1.5 Months of Inventory (MOI) at the end of March to nearly 4 months at the end of April.

How is Canadian real estate holding together? Government handouts. Approximately 20% of the Canadian population is receiving CERB – a $2000/mth support payment from the Federal Government.

If and when CERB benefits are taken away, Canadian real estate will likely face growing pressure. Not only is the supply of rentals growing rapidly, immigration is plummeting. This combination could tip Canadian real estate into negative territory. Of course, there’s always the possibility that immigration once again picks up in the future, but it’s debatable whether this will be enough to absorb the rise in housing supply.

The Coronavirus Economic Depression:

The Covid-19 economic crisis is gripping the world. After 20 years in the asset management business, it looks like we are fighting through unprecedented territory.

This is war. I created a 17 step, 47 page guide to help DumbWealth subscribers get through this.

I originally planned on printing the guide and selling copies for $20+. Instead I’m giving this away free because I think we all need to help each other during these difficult times.

Categories
Wealth Work

Your Pay Just Got Cut: Now What?

Your boss just told you and your colleagues that you’re all getting 30% pay cuts.

What do you do? How do you react?

First of all, look at it from your company’s perspective. This was probably the better of two shitty choices.

If the company needs to slash costs in a recessionary environment it has few options and little time to make those choices. Often, an impending debt payment puts a hard deadline on the need for cash. Missing a debt repayment risks the life of the entire company.

A pay cut doesn’t mean you’re getting screwed.

Often, one of the easiest ways to free up cash is to cut salary expenses. To do this, a company can either cut headcount or reduce pay per worker.

While a 30% pay cut feels like you’re getting the shaft, it is actually a sign your boss is trying to save jobs.

It might work, it might not. But either way, keeping your job during the Covid-19 recession should be top priority. A steady paycheque keeps you solvent and it buys you time to build up emergency savings. It also buys you time to build skills, network and prepare for the possibility of eventual unemployment.

Longer job tenure means a bigger severance if laid off.

Another big upside to keeping your job is you retain tenure. A longer tenure means more severance if you are eventually laid off.

In good times, a 30% pay cut would send you immediately searching for another job. But in bad times, that would be a risky strategy. This is not the time to let pride drive decisions. Unless you’re independently wealthy, you still need an income to pay your bills and feed your family.

Quitting for a new job is risky because it means your tenure resets to zero. A company can have the best of intentions when hiring, but changing circumstances could force them into cutting staff (or salaries). Who gets cut first? The new guy – because it costs the company nothing in severance. A recession is not the time to walk away from job tenure.

A 30% paycut is usually temporary.

As the economy eventually normalizes, salaries should be returned to their previous level. If this doesn’t happen, then consider your options. But it could take 2 or more years until the labour market is strong enough to give labour a fighting chance. Until then, it’s a buyers’ market.

Job seekers today are competing against millions of other job seekers for jobs that don’t exist. This is not a labour market you voluntarily enter. So accept that 30% paycut, as painful as it is, because the alternative could be a lot worse.

(Free Guide) Survive the Coronavirus Economic Catastrophe:

The Covid-19 economic crisis is gripping the world. After 20 years in the asset management business, it looks like we are fighting through unprecedented territory.

This is war. I created a 17 step, 47 page guide to help DumbWealth subscribers get through this.

I originally planned on printing the guide and selling copies for $20+. Instead I’m giving this away free because I think we all need to help each other during these difficult times.