Silver was top performing commodity in 2020:
2021 predictions from 200+ reports summarized into one chart:
Top performing asset classes in 2020: US Large Cap wins again
Best and worst performing equity sectors in 2020
2020 asset class performance, including maximum drawdown and performance since market bottom:
Stocks have done well regardless of the party in power
Stocks have performed best when Congress is split
Market performance during different government combinations
Companies ranked by eCommerce sales
79% of lost jobs have been recovered in Canada
US is still 10 million jobs behind where it started in February
Do stocks always outperform bonds over the long run? Not in this 150 year example.
Sitting on cash because you’re scared to invest? Your advisor might recommend Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) into the market, by investing a proportion of your wealth each month. However, research shows that it’s you’re almost always better off simply investing the lump sum.
No comments today. Just the charts.
Here are the top investing and economics charts and graphs from the previous week:
Covid-19 was the 3rd leading cause of death in the US between February and May
Personal savings rate hits record high of 33%
Unemployment picture in the US starting to improve, believe it or not
Beer and wine sales skyrocketing in Canada
1957/58 pandemic GDP experience saw a quick recovery after a sharp decline
Recessions are short. Expansions are long.
About a quarter of the recently unemployed are classified as temporarily unemployed.
Equities lead economies.
Markets end up doing alright a couple years after hitting their initial lows.
S&P 500 earnings scenarios
The lenders of last resort
Covid-19 case lines by province in Canada
Total debts of US states and municipalities
Massive contraction in Canadian manufacturing
Biggest decline in US consumer confidence since 1973
30+ million jobless claims in 6 weeks
US unemployment rate the highest since the end of the Great Depression
The world is dragging down China’s attempt at a recovery
Massive, sudden spike in Fed’s balance sheet:
Performance of various types of stocks during WWI and the Spanish Flu. “Smaller stocks with high yields (value) tend to not offer protection during these sharp market corrections but perform well during the recovery phase.”
What do the returns look like in the 3 months before stocks bottom in a bear market?
2020 unemployment line is just getting started, but it will probably rival that of the Great Recession:
The worst market crashes tend to see a huge drop in earnings but the relationship isn’t perfect:
This recession will force GDP onto a lower growth path:
Slow productivity growth followed the last recession:
Fiscal stimulus needed to offset coming drop:
Students graduating in 2020 will be permanently impacted:
The data tables below show what happened across a variety of asset classes after the last four market crises. There is some variance depending on asset class and the nature of the crisis, but again, the story is uniform in the only
important respect: the markets recovered what they lost and grew nicely from there.
As of March 26, the FTSE Canada Long Corporate Bond Index yielded 3.96%, compared to the FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index yield of 2.10%, resulting in a yield advantage of 1.86%:
Big drop in manufacturing activity coming to Canada:
List of the companies and institutions developing new tests for COVID-19:
Performance of gold vs. gold miners:
The insane daily volatility of March 2020 indicated the market was broken:
In March 2020, investor sentiment sunk to levels not seen since the Global Financial Crisis. While some use this as a contrarian indicator, note how long negative sentiment in 2008/2009 persisted. In fact, the sentiment was deeply negative in EARLY 2008, prior to the near-collapse that started in September. So I question the idea that extreme sentiment is actually a contrarian indicator:
When the traditional 60/40 portfolio failed:
“Pandemics have effects that last for decades. Following a pandemic, the natural rate of interest declines for decades thereafter, reaching its nadir about 20 years later, with the natural rate about 2% lower had the pandemic not taken place. At about four decades later, the natural rate returns to the level it would be expected to have had the pandemic not taken place. These results are staggering and speak of the disproportionate effects on the labor force relative to land (and later capital) that pandemics had throughout centuries.”
Pandemics also have the effect of raising real wages for some time:
Bear market rallies during the dot-com collapse and global financial crisis:
Canadian housing prices expected to take a minor hit, but quickly recover. Is this realistic? Possibly, provided flexibility is afforded to mortgage holders so they aren’t forced to sell:
Sector performance:
Investors are extremely bearish:
Fastest increase in volatility – ever:
Market performance after big increases in volatility:
Rise and fall of coronavirus cases in China and the US:
Unemployment claims have already started to spike:
Past bear markets and their recoveries:
Markets on average have historically performed OK after the VIX spikes above 40:
Central bank rate cuts since January 2020:
Real GDP forecast for US:
Real GDP forecast for Canada:
Trajectory of Covid-19 cases around the world:
The current market drawdown is very, very fast:
How long can they keep up the fight? Russia and Saudi Arabia FX reserves:
How long did it take to erase the losses of previous market declines?
