Category: Investing
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Investors: You Better Buckle Up
Markets have a way of making a fool of most investors. On June 16th, 2022 the current bear market made an interim low and started rallying. On June 22, as the market began to rise, I warned readers to beware of the sucker’s rally. Sucker’s rallies trick people into thinking the worst is over, drawing investors […]
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Real Pain
Inflation-Adjusted Earnings Yield Lowest Since 1970s The image quality of the chart below is garbage, but I felt the information is so important that I must share it with you. The inflation-adjusted earnings yield on the S&P 500 is at its lowest point since the 1970s! The earnings yield (which happens to be the inverse […]
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Economic and Market Charts
1: The gap between 10yr and 1yr Treasury yields has been decidedly negative for weeks. According to Wells Fargo, “when this spread turns negative for at least four weeks or the curve inverts by more than 25 basis points, we view this a strong indication that a recession is likely within the next 12 months […]
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Have markets bottomed?
There are some signs of investor capitulation. Is the worst already priced into risk assets?
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A Warning from a Farmer
Quotes directly from the source
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Signs point to more weakness
Although this is a bearish post, I’m not fully on the bearish side of the spectrum. There are powerful bullish counter trends in play, such as extreme negative sentiment (contrarian indicator) and declining volatility. Still, if someone put my nuts in a vice, I’d probably say I’m a bear right now. I’ll change my mind […]
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$150 oil?
On January 20th, 2022 I wrote a short post suggesting $100 oil could be in our future. Just over a month later I was right. (Sometimes it happens.) In the business of investing you only need to be right 51% of the time to make a living. Let your winners ride and limit your losses. […]
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