Category: Investing

  • Are People Opting Out of the System?

    Over the past couple years I’ve noticed a small but increasingly vocal portion of society that has given up on their futures. In public, you’d never know who these people are. They could be your coworkers, friends or family. Many don’t publicly express their views, but anonymous channels like Reddit are allowing these people to […]

  • My Dumbest Trade

    5 Lessons for every investor

  • Mid-Day Surge Hits 1000 Points

    CPI Print Below Expectations Reaction to today’s lower than expected CPI print has been extreme! As I write this, markets are up big (while the VIX, USD and Treasury yields fall): The Good News Today’s CPI release came in below expectations (7.7% vs 7.9%) and is what the Fed wants/needs to see to slow down […]

  • T-Bills are Sexy Again

    1: The 2 year US Treasury yield at 4.71% is HIGHER than high yield bond yields at the beginning of 2022! Want to go shorter duration? 3 month T-bills are yielding (4.12%) essentially what HY provided on November 9th, 2021 (4.17%). T-bills are sexy again! Compare those yields on risk-free securities to the S&P 500 earnings […]

  • Thursday charts: home price declines + Powell pivot

    A few charts for a Thursday night. 1: US home prices are declining at a pace not seen since the Global Financial Crisis. Also, mortgage refinancing (second chart) is at a level not seen for 20 years. This doesn’t mean we’re going to see another subprime mortgage crisis. However, it does point to underlying weakness in […]

  • Quick Hits: 10 Charts

    1: 30 year fixed mortgage rates in the US are about 7%. Rates have been at this level before, but not at these house prices. 2: Almost all past Fed hiking cycles have ended in crisis. Is there any reason for this time to be any different? 3: The pandemic triggered many early retirements, partly […]

  • People ask: what should I invest in?

    People sometimes ask me what they should invest in. They never like my answer. They want a quick fix: “buy XYZ stock” or “buy ABC cryptocurrency”. Most people outside of the world of investment finance unfortunately think this is the way to invest. They watch Jim Cramer honk horns and yell “buy, buy, buy!” on […]

  • How does today’s market compare to 1970s?

    Also: Explaining today’s 1300 point move in the Dow

  • Investors: You Better Buckle Up

    Markets have a way of making a fool of most investors. On June 16th, 2022 the current bear market made an interim low and started rallying. On June 22, as the market began to rise, I warned readers to beware of the sucker’s rally. Sucker’s rallies trick people into thinking the worst is over, drawing investors […]

  • Real Pain

    Inflation-Adjusted Earnings Yield Lowest Since 1970s The image quality of the chart below is garbage, but I felt the information is so important that I must share it with you. The inflation-adjusted earnings yield on the S&P 500 is at its lowest point since the 1970s! The earnings yield (which happens to be the inverse […]