Author: Dumb Wealth

  • Mid-Day Surge Hits 1000 Points

    CPI Print Below Expectations Reaction to today’s lower than expected CPI print has been extreme! As I write this, markets are up big (while the VIX, USD and Treasury yields fall): The Good News Today’s CPI release came in below expectations (7.7% vs 7.9%) and is what the Fed wants/needs to see to slow down […]

  • T-Bills are Sexy Again

    1: The 2 year US Treasury yield at 4.71% is HIGHER than high yield bond yields at the beginning of 2022! Want to go shorter duration? 3 month T-bills are yielding (4.12%) essentially what HY provided on November 9th, 2021 (4.17%). T-bills are sexy again! Compare those yields on risk-free securities to the S&P 500 earnings […]

  • Thursday charts: home price declines + Powell pivot

    A few charts for a Thursday night. 1: US home prices are declining at a pace not seen since the Global Financial Crisis. Also, mortgage refinancing (second chart) is at a level not seen for 20 years. This doesn’t mean we’re going to see another subprime mortgage crisis. However, it does point to underlying weakness in […]

  • How would markets react to a tactical nuke?

    Warning: This article took me to dark places. I’d rather not write about this stuff, but who else is? Tomorrow morning you wake up and head downstairs. The kids are already up, but instead of watching their usual cartoon their show was interrupted by breaking news of a nuclear explosion in Kiev. What happens next? […]

  • Quick Hits: 10 Charts

    1: 30 year fixed mortgage rates in the US are about 7%. Rates have been at this level before, but not at these house prices. 2: Almost all past Fed hiking cycles have ended in crisis. Is there any reason for this time to be any different? 3: The pandemic triggered many early retirements, partly […]

  • People ask: what should I invest in?

    People sometimes ask me what they should invest in. They never like my answer. They want a quick fix: “buy XYZ stock” or “buy ABC cryptocurrency”. Most people outside of the world of investment finance unfortunately think this is the way to invest. They watch Jim Cramer honk horns and yell “buy, buy, buy!” on […]

  • Toronto Housing Bubble Pushing Economy Over the Edge

    Toronto is #1! Usually that’s a good thing. In this case, it’s not. According to the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index, Toronto is the most overvalued real estate market in the world. Toronto is a nice city, but it’s totally disconnected from reality. Increasingly, the only way people can afford to buy a house […]

  • How does today’s market compare to 1970s?

    Also: Explaining today’s 1300 point move in the Dow

  • Should You Pay Off Your Mortgage or Invest?

    part math, part psychology and part risk-management

  • Wages are Up 5%. Is yours?

    Wages are Up 5%. Is yours?

    Happy Thanksgiving to my Canadian friends! Did you get your 5%? Today the US and Canada both released September 2022 employments stats: US Canada Consider this, the average wage across the country rose 5% over the last 12 months. For some, wages rose much more. 5% is what people have already received. How much did your wage increase […]